Connecticut: Democratic governor primary too close to call as Malloy closes; McMahon up 22 points in GOP Senate primary

Anthony Ditter on August 10, 2010 in College Online

The Democratic primary for governor in Connecticut is going down to the wire with businessman Ned Lamont at 45 percent and former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy at 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of Democratic likely primary voters released today. This compares to a 45 – 40 percent Lamont lead August 5. Today, 12 percent remain undecided and 30 percent of those who choose a candidate say they might change their mind.

Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon is pulling away from Rob Simmons and now leads 50 – 28 percent, with 15 percent for Peter Schiff, compared to 47 – 30 percent in an August 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Today, 7 percent are undecided and 30 percent of those who choose a candidate say they might change their mind.

Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele continues his surge among Republican likely primary voters and now trails former ambassador Tom Foley 38 – 30 percent, compared to 41 – 26 percent August 5. Today, Oz Griebel has 17 percent, as 14 percent remain undecided and 47 percent of those who choose a candidate say they might change their mind.

“The Democratic governor’s race between Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy is too close to call and the Republican governor’s race between Tom Foley and Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele could produce a surprise,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. “In the Republican Senate contest, it looks like Rob Simmons would need more than a surprise; he would need a miracle to catch Linda McMahon. But in politics, miracles do happen.”

From August 3 – 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 664 Connecticut Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 464 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 664 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

1REP. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Tom Foley, Mike Fedele, or Oz Griebel? (If undecided q1REP) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Foley, Fedele, or Griebel? (This table includes “Leaners”.) 
 LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Foley 38% 43% 33% Fedele 30 27 33 Griebel 17 18 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) – - – WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) – - – DK/NA 14 12 17
1aREP. (If express choice q1REP) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? 
 LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1REP… CAND CHOICE Q1REP Tot TF MF OG Made up 53% 50% 53% 58% Might change 47 50 46 41 DK/NA 1 – 1 1
2REP. Is your opinion of – Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? 
 LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 45% 49% 40% Unfavorable 34 32 36 Hvn’t hrd enough 18 16 19 REFUSED 4 3 5
3REP. Is your opinion of – Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? 
 LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 39% 41% 37% Unfavorable 27 26 28 Hvn’t hrd enough 29 27 31 REFUSED 5 6 3
4REP. Is your opinion of – Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? 
 LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 26% 27% 24% Unfavorable 8 8 8 Hvn’t hrd enough 64 62 66 REFUSED 2 2 2
5REP. If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons, or Peter Schiff? (If undecided q5REP) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McMahon, Simmons, or Schiff? (This table includes “Leaners”.) 
 LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McMahon 50% 47% 53% Simmons 28 29 26 Schiff 15 18 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) – - – WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) – - – DK/NA 7 5 9
5aREP. (If express choice q5REP) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? 
 LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CHOSE CANDIDATE Q5REP… CAND CHOICE Q5REP Tot LM RS PS Made up 70% 74% 68% 58% Might change 30 26 32 42 DK/NA – 1 – -
6REP. Is your opinion of – Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? 
 LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 50% 50% 49% Unfavorable 28 31 23 Hvn’t hrd enough 20 17 24 REFUSED 3 2 4
7REP. Is your opinion of – Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her? 
 LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 64% 64% 64% Unfavorable 27 26 27 Hvn’t hrd enough 6 6 6 REFUSED 3 3 3
8REP. Is your opinion of – Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? 
 LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 31% 38% 24% Unfavorable 16 19 12 Hvn’t hrd enough 51 41 62 REFUSED 2 1 2
THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 464 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS

1DEM. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Dan Malloy or Ned Lamont? (If undecided q1DEM) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Malloy or Lamont? (This table includes “Leaners”.) 
 LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Malloy 42% 38% 44% Lamont 45 48 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) – - – DK/NA 12 13 11
1aDEM. (If express choice q1DEM) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? 
 LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1DEM…. CAND CHOICE Q1DEM Tot DM NL Made up 69% 71% 67% Might change 30 28 31 DK/NA 1 1 2
2DEM. Is your opinion of – Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? 
 LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 57% 54% 58% Unfavorable 20 22 19 Hvn’t hrd enough 19 18 19 REFUSED 5 5 4
3DEM. Is your opinion of – Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? 
 LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 62% 66% 58% Unfavorable 23 22 24 Hvn’t hrd enough 12 8 15 REFUSED 3 4 2 REFUSED 3 4 2









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